Mr. Leo's: Interview #2 – Walter Leonhardt on Strategy, Psychology, and the Quest to Redefine Success in Football

Walter Leonhardt is no football man, but was recently appointed as Technical Director of FC Deren. With a unique background in behavioral analysis and a deep understanding of ancient strategic principles, the German brings an unconventional approach to the football field, aiming to test the effectiveness of his theories in a competitive sports environment. In this exclusive interview, Mr. Leo dives deep into Leonhardt's vision, his insights on football as a battleground for strategy, and his ambition to prove that age-old tactics can redefine success on the modern pitch.

Mr. Leo: "Thank you, Walter, for joining us today. I read your interview with UB Post. They called you a behavioral analyst. What does that actually mean, and why do you think it benefits you for a football career?"

Walter Leonhardt: "Thank you for having me, Mr. Leo.

It means I study behavior as movement inside a strategic space.

Who reacts to what? Who creates pressure? Who shifts attention? Who uses uncertainty? Who forces the other side into a bad decision?

Football is full of that. It is not only technique, tactics and fitness. It is perception, pressure, timing, expectation, deception and reaction.

That is where the 36 Stratagems come in.

George Soros used financial markets to test reflexivity. Money was his measuring instrument. I want to use football to test whether the 36 Stratagems can become a practical tool."

Mr. Leo: "So this is an experiment?"

Walter Leonhardt: "Yes. But not in a classroom.

The 36 Stratagems are not exotic wisdom or clever quotes. They are a classification system for recurring patterns of human action.

They originally come from Chinese strategic thought, especially war and politics. Harro von Senger made them known in the German-speaking world. I took that foundation and tried to turn it into something operational.

In football, I ask: Is pressure being shifted? Is attention being bound? Is the opponent being pulled out of his strength zone? Is chaos being used? Is a reaction being provoked?

The goal is not to write Chinese sayings on the dressing-room wall. The goal is to think simpler, see faster and act more precisely."

Mr. Leo: "Give me one real football example."

Walter Leonhardt: "Deren's match against Bulgan SP Falcons in the eighth round of this year's [Mongolian] Premier League.

Our situation was bad: No regular head coach. Almost no options from the bench. Injuries. A suspension. And Falcons had just smashed Khoromkhon 8–0 the match before.

On paper, it should have been damage limitation.

So we shifted the frame before the game. We did not hide our weakness. That would have been ridiculous. Instead, we moved attention onto another level: philosophy, attitude, self-image, psychological dominance.

That was Stratagem 6: Clamor in the East, strike in the West.

The visible noise was not the real attack. The real attack was to make the game tighter, more nervous and more psychologically complicated than it should have been."

Mr. Leo: "You still lost."

Walter Leonhardt: "Yes. And that's exactly why the example is useful.

If I claimed the stratagem made us win, it would be cheap storytelling. We lost. A defeat is a defeat.

But the question is not whether a stratagem automatically produces victories. That would be nonsense.

The question is whether it can change the structure of a situation.

We lost 2-1. We led 1–0. We narrowly missed the 2-0 lead. It was not the clean, controlled walkover the situation suggested.

Stratagems do not replace quality, fitness, technique or football intelligence. But they can change the conditions under which those things become effective.

That is enough for a test. Not proof. But a signal worth studying."

Mr. Leo: "Once opponents know you use these methods, isn’t the surprise gone?"

Walter Leonhardt: "If you think of stratagems as tricks, it is. But I do not think in this kind of category.

Stratagems are tools for reading situations. If an opponent knows I use them, the game doesn't disappear. It moves to another level.

He watches me. I watch him watching me. He watches me watching him. He tries not to react. I observe his non-reaction. He may protect one weakness, maybe exposes another.

He can know I use stratagems. He still has to act. And once he acts, he creates patterns.

The point is not to surprise opponents forever. The point is to understand adaptation faster than they do."

Mr. Leo: "You speak about systems. What does that mean?"

Walter Leonhardt: "A single stratagem is one move.

A system begins when the opponent’s answer to my first move already becomes material for my second move.

In football, that can happen on several levels: sporting, psychological, communicative and organizational.

If we're weaker, I cannot simply pretend we are strong. I mean, I can try, but that's primitive deception.

The better question is: Which weakness is visible? Which weakness is decisive? And which weakness can become an expectation trap?

A trick needs the right moment. A method creates several possible next moves."

Mr. Leo: "Isn't that manipulation?"

Walter Leonhardt: "Define 'manipulation'.

Football is full of influence.

Every press conference influences expectations. Every lineup sends a signal. Every coach affects emotions. Every club tries to move players, fans, opponents and sponsors in a certain direction.

The honest question is not whether influence exists. It always exists and we always try to get our best out of it.

The better question is: Do we understand it consciously, or do we act blindly?

I don't want to break people. I want to read situations.

Stratagemic thinking doesn't make football more manipulative as it is. It makes visible how much influence already exists in it."

Mr. Leo: "How do you teach this to players?"

Walter Leonhardt: "Well, I don't plan to lecture them about Chinese stratagems.

I think, a player doesn't need to know whether something is Stratagem 4, 6 or 13. He needs just to know what to do.

The stratagems aren't the language of the dressing room. They're the language behind the dressing room.

For the player, it becomes simple:

Let him run.

Let him search.

Show him this side.

Prepare the attack on the other side.

Wait for the bad touch.

Do not react too early.

Good theory disappears into good practice."

Mr. Leo: "How does Deren FC react to this?"

Walter Leonhardt: "We will see. I didn't start at the beginning of the season. And a club is not a seminar room.

I do not ask anyone to believe in the 36 Stratagems. I have to show that they are useful.

If an analysis helps us understand an opponent, it is useful. If preparation helps a player recognize a situation earlier, it is useful. If a decision saves resources, it is useful.

I bring a tool. The tool has to prove itself in daily work. And I have to prove myself in daily work.

In this concrete application, both the tool and me are still in beta version. Deren FC gives us reality: training ground, dressing room, matches, negotiations and defeats.

My approach may fail. Then I sit down again, analyze the wrongs and start over."

Mr. Leo: "You are not a football man. Don't you think that's a problem?"

Walter Leonhardt: "It is - if you think a Technical Director must know everything himself.

I am not a former professional. I am not a classical coach. I haven't spent twenty years in dressing rooms, but in field research and lecture rooms.

So what can I contribute? And where do I need people who know more than I do?

I adapt a system whose roots are not in football, but in ancient warfare and what could be called mathematical behavioral science.

That doesn't mean people are machines. They're not. But under pressure, behavior follows recurring patterns: attack, retreat, deception, overload, waiting, binding, provoking, using chaos.

I do not claim to know football better than football people. I bring an external order system and test whether it's useful in football.

My lack of a classical football background doesn't protect me from making mistakes. It only protects me from certain routines.

For everything else, I need a trustworthy management and good football people around me."

Mr. Leo: "How do you measure success?"

Walter Leonhardt: "Football is measured by results. But a good result can be lucky. A bad result can follow a correct decision.

So I look deeper.

Are our decisions clearer?

Do we read situations earlier?

Do we use limited resources better?

Do we become less naïve?

Can we recognize and repeat patterns?

If a tool creates better decisions over time, it should eventually appear on the pitch.

But the foundation is decision quality."

Mr. Leo: "You say everyone uses stratagems anyway. So why study them? Obviously we know them."

Walter Leonhardt: "A child can deceive, provoke, wait, distract and shift pressure. That doesn't mean the child understands the mechanism.

Adults do the same: coaches, players, agents, journalists, politicians, businessmen.

Without a classification system, you see stories.

With a classification system, you see mechanisms.

And once something becomes readable, it can be trained, tested and improved."

Mr. Leo: "So give me one example outside the pitch."

Walter Leonhardt: "I wanted to hire a certain head coach as assistant.

My interest was real. I genuinely wanted him.

But the talks kept shifting. He showed interest, but there were always reasons why he couldn't meet with me and our new head coach.

That can be normal scheduling. Or it can have strategic function.

If he uses my interest to improve his position with his current employer, then my offer becomes a lever and I become a tool in his negotiation.

That is Stratagem 3: Kill with a borrowed knife."

Mr. Leo: "And your new head coach understands this?"

Walter Leonhardt: "He understands that it has substance and is worth trying it."

Mr. Leo: "Final question. Is this still football?"

Walter Leonhardt: "Yes. Because football was never only football.

It was always space, time, pressure, perception, rhythm, deception, courage, fear, patience and decision.

I'm only trying to name those mechanisms more precisely to use them better."

Mr. Leo: "Thanks again."